Hi Alan,
You are right about Higman's lower bound.
A simple modification of Higman's argument gives that there are at least
p^{2*n*n*(n-9)/27} groups with order p^n, class 2 and exponent p.
So asymptotically there are also p^{2(n^3)/27} groups with order p^n,
class 2 and exponent p.
All the best,
Mike (Newman)